Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4611
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4611 · JFK → PIT
departs 8:30 PM ET · arrives 10:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.