Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4628
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4628 · ATL → LGA
departs 10:34 AM ET · arrives 12:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
LGA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.17 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.