Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 4630 · LGA → DTW
departs 5:13 PM ET · arrives 7:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.