Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4655
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4655 · PIT → LGA
departs 5:31 PM ET · arrives 7:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from PIT are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.