Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4668
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4668 · ORD → SDF
departs 3:46 PM CT · arrives 6:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SDF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8.4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.