YX 4673 · LGA → RIC

took off 5:10 PM ET · expected to land 5:59 PM ET (scheduled 5:05 PM ET → 6:46 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RIC?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RIC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

RIC (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4673 · LGA → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?