YX 4704 · LGA → AVL

took off 10:58 AM ET · landed 12:28 PM ET (scheduled 10:31 AM ET → 12:50 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AVL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

AVL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4704 · LGA → AVL

Odds over time

How late did it get to AVL?