YX 4710 · BNA → JFK

took off 5:52 PM CT · landed 8:51 PM ET (scheduled 5:38 PM CT → 9:21 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4710 · BNA → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?