Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4723
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4723 · ROA → ORD
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:14 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ROA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ROA that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ROA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.41 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.