YX 4737 · ORD → AVL

took off 3:26 PM CT · landed 5:38 PM ET (scheduled 3:13 PM CT → 6:13 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AVL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AVL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AVL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4737 · ORD → AVL

Odds over time

How late did it get to AVL?