Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4738
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4738 · ILM → BOS
departs 2:25 PM ET · arrives 4:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ILM that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.16 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.