Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4738 LANDED 11:07 AM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 4738 · LGA → BUF

took off 10:17 AM ET · landed 11:07 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BUF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4738 · LGA → BUF

Odds over time