Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4756
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 4756 · RDU → ORD
departs 1:18 PM ET · arrives 2:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.65 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.