Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4786 LANDED 12:12 PM ET, ~1 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 4786 · BOS → ILM

took off 10:34 AM ET · landed 12:12 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.00 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4786 · BOS → ILM

Odds over time