Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4790 LANDED 1:24 PM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 4790 · PHL → AUS

took off 10:55 AM ET · landed 1:24 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4790 · PHL → AUS

Odds over time