Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4809 LANDED 9:03 AM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 4809 · ATL → LGA

took off 7:25 AM ET · landed 9:03 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from ATL are usually not late

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.22 in

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4809 · ATL → LGA

Odds over time