Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5613
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 5613 · JAX → LGA
departs 3:59 PM ET · arrives 6:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 3.92 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.