Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5613
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 5613 · LGA → JAX
departs 12:39 PM ET · arrives 3:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.