Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 5615 · BOS → SDF
departs 12:15 PM ET · arrives 3:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/1 16%
Fri 10/2 10%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into SDF at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,367 ft Visibility 5.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.