Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 5617 · LGA → RIC
departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 3:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Thu 10/8 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RIC that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
LGA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
RIC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.