Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 5618 · LGA → HHH
departs 9:10 AM ET · arrives 11:34 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at HHH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HHH?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HHH
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
LGA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HHH (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.