Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5622
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 5622 · RIC → BOS
departs 1:40 PM ET · arrives 3:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at RIC that day
↑
RIC is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.16 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.