Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5642
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 5642 · IND → LGA
departs 2:48 PM ET · arrives 5:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 41%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 28%
Thu 10/8 23%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
2pm departures from IND are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.