Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5673
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 5673 · LGA → MEM
departs 10:00 AM ET · arrives 11:56 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at MEM that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.