Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5773
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 5773 · LGA → MEM
departs 1:35 PM ET · arrives 3:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 18%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MEM that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.