Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5784 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 5784 · BNA → LGA

departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 8:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5784 · BNA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?