Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5795 IN THE AIR (OFF 2:30 PM CT, ETA 5:25 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

YX 5795 · BNA → LGA

took off 2:30 PM CT · expected to land 5:25 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5795 · BNA → LGA

Odds over time