YX 5803 · PWM → LGA

took off 5:09 PM ET · expected to land 6:11 PM ET (scheduled 4:54 PM ET → 6:32 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ PWM is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PWM

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5803 · PWM → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?