Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 5806 · GRR → LGA
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 9:04 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7am departures from GRR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.