Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5809 IN THE AIR (OFF 10:24 AM ET, ETA 11:15 AM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

YX 5809 · JFK → IAD

took off 10:24 AM ET · expected to land 11:15 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5809 · JFK → IAD

Odds over time