Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 5823 · PIT → JFK
departs 11:58 AM ET · arrives 1:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 12%
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.