Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5833
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 5833 · LGA → LEX
departs 10:45 AM ET · arrives 12:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at LEX that day
↑
10am departures from LGA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LEX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.