Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5835
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 5835 · IAD → JFK
departs 12:29 PM ET · arrives 1:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.