Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 5836 · CMH → JFK
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 8:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at JFK that day
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.