Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5855 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 5855 · CMH → DTW

departs 6:47 PM ET · arrives 8:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from CMH are often late

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5855 · CMH → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?