Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 9931 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 9931 · BOS → LGA

departs 7:06 AM ET · arrives 7:52 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 9931 · BOS → LGA

Odds over time