Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 9931 LANDED 4:45 PM ET, ~6 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 9931 · BUF → JFK

took off 3:43 PM ET · landed 4:45 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at JFK that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 9931 · BUF → JFK

Odds over time