Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1095 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1095 · MFE → DFW

departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 8:49 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 2.1 in of rain forecast at MFE that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from MFE are usually not late

Weather at each end

MFE (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.10 in

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1095 · MFE → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?