Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1151 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1151 · LAX → PHL

departs 7:02 AM PT · arrives 3:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1151 · LAX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?