AA 1233 · SAT → PHL

departs 7:12 AM CT · arrives 11:58 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.16 in

PHL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1233 · SAT → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?