AA 1242 · RIC → ORD

departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 9:42 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at RIC that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.32 in

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1242 · RIC → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?