Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1351 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1351 · PHX → ABQ

departs 4:16 PM MT · arrives 6:28 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ABQ?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ABQ (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1351 · PHX → ABQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABQ?