AA 1393 · ORD → PHL

departs 4:03 PM CT · arrives 7:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1393 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?