Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1398 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1398 · AUS → ORD

departs 6:26 PM CT · arrives 9:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1398 · AUS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?