Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 143 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 143 · LAX → HNL

departs 3:55 PM PT · arrives 6:41 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 143 · LAX → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?