AA 1462 · DFW → DEN

took off 12:27 PM CT · expected to land 12:55 PM MT (scheduled 12:00 PM CT → 1:05 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.18 in

DEN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1462 · DFW → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?