AA 1465 · FLL → PHL

departs 3:35 PM ET · arrives 6:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from FLL are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1465 · FLL → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?