Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1481 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1481 · PHL → CMH

departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 7:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.09 in

CMH (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1481 · PHL → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?