Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1514 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1514 · DFW → TUL

departs 8:08 PM CT · arrives 9:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

TUL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1514 · DFW → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?