Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1568 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AA 1568 · ORD → AUS

departs 2:46 PM CT · arrives 5:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ ORD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1568 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?